In this report:
- Conquer’s February monthly performance update
- Peaks and valleys, perspective
- Update to the algorithm inserted Feb 8th
- Ongoing data collection and optimization
February 2019 Performance Report
Conquer was mostly flat for the second month of the year and fourth month since inception with a -0.44% return.
Total return to date is +3.78% on pace for a +11.16% yearly return. This is currently below the targeted 30% yearly return target. Of note it was expected by the end of February we would be above our targeted pace.
Larger Perspective, Peaks and Valleys
You are looking at a chart of the 14 pairs Conquer collects data from. Conquer chooses which pairs and timeframe to pick setups from and reverses the direction shown in this graph. In other words looking at this graph a downward direction is advantageous for Conquer and the spike upwards (or green bars) are disadvantageous.
It is clear the from the three green bars in a row and sharp rise in the equity graph the last few days of February were difficult for Conquer’s performance.
Peaks and valleys, a perspective for you to see things from the bigger picture.
Latest Algorithm Update
On Feb 8th and updated went live on the algorithm. Nine pairs were selected to trade between the hours of 00:00-00:59.
EURNZD, NZDCAD, EURGBP, GBPJPY, AUDCAD, GBPNZD, AUDUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY
From the months of data collected these nine pairs during this hour had a win/loss ratio of 77%.
During the three weeks Conquer was trading these pairs during this hour the win/loss ratio was only 62%
Clearly three weeks is not nearly enough of a time period for the mean to work itself out. However the added result to the performance from this addition to the algorithm was a loss of -3.08%.
While over time it is expected the update would have provided for a greater overall return the fact is during this last three weeks it caused an additional loss that would have been achieved otherwise (the gain for the month would have been +2.64%). Conquer would have barely surpassed the monthly average gain of +2.50% required in order to achieve the targeted 30% yearly goal.
In conclusion: this algo update is now being reverted back and removed because the extra volatility is not conducive to the potential return.
Ongoing Data Collection and Optimization
Everyone is looking for a good return on their money and a 30% return is exceptional. We will continue collecting data and looking to optimize the algorithm in order to implement its greatest potential. However, we are not looking to break things. Nor are we afraid to admit we are wrong when trying to improve them.
With the last update removed we should return to the Nov 21st algo update pace return now which is more than enough to get Conquer back on track to meet our targeted 30% yearly goal.
Peaks and valleys, it will be bouncing back up soon enough!